![]() ![]() ![]() ARC-CO could make payments in a limited number of counties in 2019, but those counties likely will be limited to areas with very late planting. Corn: We would not expect PLC to not make payments in 2019.If ARC-IC is not expected to make payments, the following will likely hold: This evaluation can be done using the 2018 Farm Bill What If Tool. For some counties, particularly those with low yields, ARC-CO may look more favorable for corn and soybeans after the update.Īt this point, we suggest that farmers evaluate ARC-IC for their individual Farm Service Agency (FSA) farms. For most counties, results will not change much following the county yield update. We will make at least one more update to the Gardner ARC/PLC Payment Calculator following the February 20 th release of the NASS county yields. For most farms with PLC yields near or above the average, PLC will make higher payments than ARC-CO in almost all counties. The size of the PLC payment will depend on a farm’s PLC yield. ![]() Currently ARC-CO has a 30% of making a payment, but this probability will change after the release of county yields. The 2019 MYA price is projected at $9.00, well above the $8.40 effective reference price threshold for triggering a payment, resulting in a very low chance of a PLC payment (4%). This is for non-irrigated soybeans with a PLC yield of 55 bushels per acre. For most individuals, PLC seems an appropriate choice for corn when considering potential payments and likelihood for payments over the two-year period.Ī 5-minute farmdoc daily YouTube video looking at corn ARC and PLC payments:įigure 2 shows the Gardner ARC/PLC Payment Calculator results for soybeans in Woodford County, Illinois. In contrast, PLC has a higher chance and expected payment level for 2020 than ARC-CO. ARC-CO could make payments for a limited number of counties in 2019. For a few counties with low yields, the expected payment levels and likelihood of payments will increase.Īt this point, PLC is not expected to make payments for corn in 2019. For most counties, the revised county yield estimates will lower the likelihood and expected payment level of ARC-CO. Therefore, updating county yield estimates will not change results for estimated PLC payments or probabilities, but will change the results for ARC-CO. County yield is not a factor in PLC payments, but it is a factor in ARC-CO payment calculations. We expect to make one final update to the Gardner Payment Calculator after the release of National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) county yields on February 20th. (see farmdoc daily, Janufor a more detailed discussion of price possibilities). This is because we now know price for four months of the marketing year. The 2019 MYA price can still vary from $3.85, but the range of possible outcomes for final 2019 MYA price is much smaller than at September when the marketing year began. The range of possible prices for 2019 was greatly reduced.(The impact of expected price can be evaluated in the Gardner Payment Calculator by selecting different forecast models.) The actual 2019 price would need to be below $3.70 to trigger a PLC payment. The revised 2019 MYA price is $3.85 per bushel, above the $3.70 reference price. At $3.56, the expected MYA price was below the $3.70 reference price and PLC payments were likely. The expected MYA price for 2019 was $3.56 before the update.Two things changed in the Gardner Payment Calculator: Before the update those results were $52.90 per base acre and a 61% chance of payment. For example, the first row of output in Figure 1 shows PLC making a payment of $1.30 per base acre in 2019 and a 13% chance of making a payment. The new information incorporated into that update dramatically changed expected payments and likelihood of payments. The Gardner Payment Calculator was updated after the release of the January WASDE report. The PLC payments would average $1.30 per base increase, including the 77% of times PLC would not make a payment. If 2019 could be repeated a 100 times, PLC would make a payments in 13% of the years. Similarly, PLC has a 13% likelihood of payment. ![]()
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